“The future of Urban commuting will be driven by interconnected ecosystems – ‘Technology and Bicycling’, and advancement in technology will make bicycling faster, safer and easier” says a recent research report ‘Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions 2020’ published by Deloitte.
‘Bicycle’ a two-hundred-year old invention has been identified by Deloitte as a technological remedy which can resolve urban transportation problems in the future. The global consultancy firm in its 136-page report published in December 2019, predicts usage of bicycles in cites to double by 2022. “We predict that tens of billions of additional bicycle trips per year will take place in 2022 over 2019 levels. This increase in bicycling will double the number of regular bicycle users in many major cities around the world where cycling to work is still uncommon”.
The findings reveal shift in commute mode will have environmental benefits too, “Tens of billions of additional bicycle rides per year means fewer car trips and lower emissions, with spill over benefits for traffic congestion and urban air quality”.
The study suggests higher adoption of cycling will enhance quality of life, “Growth in urban bicycle use can drive profound societal changes: reductions in traffic and pollution, less-crowded public transit systems, and improvements in public health”.
As per estimates, “By 2050, 2.5 billion more people are expected to be living in cities”. Thus accelerating traffic congestion, infrastructure and air quality issues. The study says “In many cities, average car speeds are getting slower and slower, and car trips are getting correspondingly longer and longer. This trend may make bicycles, particularly electric bicycles, the fastest way to get around in some areas”.
According to Deloitte, cycling will undergo technological transformation and electric cycles will stand out as popular choice for mobility, personal and shared. Further, development in lithium-ion battery, power, pricing and related technologies will boost cycling’s growth. “The e-bike market is seeing a surge in interest, between 2020 and 2023, more than 130 million e-bikes are expected to be sold, and in 2023, e-bike sales are expected to top 40 million units worldwide, generating about US$20 billion in revenue”, The study claims e-bikes sales is expected to surpass sales of electric vehicles – cars and trucks which are estimated to sell 12 million units by 2025.
Cycle logistics will pick up momentum as electric cycles makes an efficient alternative to fuel based vans and mini trucks for shipping goods. The report points out “Electric cargo bikes could become a preferred solution for last-mile delivery in cities. They emit zero carbon, and occupy far less road space than cars when in use or parked”.
Public bike sharing schemes will be vital for smart cities and likely to get a boost at the back of tech driven initiatives like smartphone apps, wireless connectivity, urban planning digital tools and predictive data analytics. “Electrified bike sharing programs, docked as well as dockless, are likely to proliferate in 2020 and beyond”, the study highlights.
From India perspective, although cycling represents less than 10 percent of journeys, in Bangalore 5% and New Delhi 4%, researchers estimate an upsurge in cycling trips every year in cities with higher population density, and bicycling to become more widespread in the future.
“Cycling can address transportation issues faced by cities worldwide, thereby resolving social and environmental challenges in moving people and things around. Hence, Cycling Cities will be Successful Cities”, the report concludes.
Download the report : TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS PREDICTIONS 2020
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